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The decline in stomach cancer mortality: exploration of future trends in seven European countries

机译：胃癌死亡率的下降：探索七个欧洲国家的未来趋势

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摘要

Mortality from stomach cancer has fallen steadily during the past decades. The aim of this paper is to assess the implication of a possible continuation of the decline in stomach cancer mortality until the year 2030. Annual rates of decline in stomach cancer mortality from 1980 to 2005 were determined for the Netherlands, United Kingdom, France, and four Nordic countries on the basis of regression analysis. Mortality rates were extrapolated until 2030, assuming the same rate of decline as in the past, using three possible scenarios. The absolute numbers of deaths were projected taking into account data on the ageing of national populations. Stomach cancer mortality rates declined between 1980 and 2005 at about the same rate (3.6–4.9% per year) for both men and women in all countries. The rate of decline did not level off in recent years, and it was not smaller in countries with lower overall mortality rates in 1980. If this decline were to continue into the future, stomach cancer mortality rates would decline with about 66% between 2005 and 2030 in most populations, while the absolute number of stomach cancer deaths would diminish by about 50%. Thus, in view of the strong, stable and consistent mortality declines in recent decades, and despite population ageing, stomach cancer is likely to become far less important as a cause of death in Europe in the future.
机译：在过去的几十年中，胃癌导致的死亡率稳步下降。本文的目的是评估直到2030年胃癌死亡率可能继续下降的隐含意义。确定了1980年至2005年荷兰，英国，法国和美国的胃癌死亡率的年下降率。四个北欧国家在回归分析的基础上。使用三种可能的情景，假设到2030年之前的死亡率下降幅度与过去相同，可以推断出死亡率。预测绝对死亡人数时要考虑到国民人口老龄化的数据。在1980年至2005年间，所有国家的男性和女性的胃癌死亡率均以相同的速度下降（每年3.6-4.9％）。下降率近年来并未趋于平稳，在1980年总体死亡率较低的国家中下降幅度并不小。如果这种下降趋势持续到未来，则胃癌死亡率将在2005年至2005年期间下降约66％。到2030年，大多数人口中胃癌死亡的绝对人数将减少约50％。因此，鉴于近几十年来强劲，稳定和持续的死亡率下降，并且尽管人口老龄化，胃癌作为欧洲未来的死因很可能变得不那么重要。

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