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首页> 美国卫生研究院文献>Wiley-Blackwell Online Open >Matrix‐Based Sensitivity Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Storage: A Case Study from the ORCHIDEE‐MICT Model
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Matrix‐Based Sensitivity Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Storage: A Case Study from the ORCHIDEE‐MICT Model

机译：基于矩阵的土壤有机碳储量敏感性评估：基于ORCHIDEE-MICT模型的案例研究

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摘要

Modeling of global soil organic carbon (SOC) is accompanied by large uncertainties. The heavy computational requirement limits our flexibility in disentangling uncertainty sources especially in high latitudes. We build a structured sensitivity analyzing framework through reorganizing the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE)‐aMeliorated Interactions between Carbon and Temperature (MICT) model with vertically discretized SOC into one matrix equation, which brings flexibility in comprehensive sensitivity assessment. Through Sobol's method enabled by the matrix, we systematically rank 34 relevant parameters according to variance explained by each parameter and find a strong control of carbon input and turnover time on long‐term SOC storages. From further analyses for each soil layer and regional assessment, we find that the active layer depth plays a critical role in the vertical distribution of SOC and SOC equilibrium stocks in northern high latitudes (>50°N). However, the impact of active layer depth on SOC is highly interactive and nonlinear, varying across soil layers and grid cells. The stronger impact of active layer depth on SOC comes from regions with shallow active layer depth (e.g., the northernmost part of America, Asia, and some Greenland regions). The model is sensitive to the parameter that controls vertical mixing (cryoturbation rate) but only when the vertical carbon input from vegetation is limited since the effect of vertical mixing is relatively small. And the current model structure may still lack mechanisms that effectively bury nonrecalcitrant SOC. We envision a future with more comprehensive model intercomparisons and assessments with an ensemble of land carbon models adopting the matrix‐based sensitivity framework.
机译：全球土壤有机碳（SOC）的建模伴随着很大的不确定性。繁重的计算需求限制了我们在解开不确定性源（尤其是在高纬度地区）方面的灵活性。我们通过重新组织动态生态系统中的碳和水文学（ORCHIDEE）-将碳和温度之间的相互作用（MICT）模型与垂直离散的SOC改成一个矩阵方程来构建结构化的灵敏度分析框架，这为综合灵敏度评估带来了灵活性。通过矩阵支持的Sobol方法，我们根据每个参数解释的方差系统地对34个相关参数进行排名，并找到了对长期SOC储存中碳输入和周转时间的强有力控制。通过对每个土壤层的进一步分析和区域评估，我们发现活跃层深度在北部高纬度（> 50°N）的SOC和SOC平衡储量的垂直分布中起着关键作用。但是，活性层深度对SOC的影响是高度互动的，并且是非线性的，在土壤层和网格单元之间变化很大。活性层深度对SOC的影响更大来自活性层深度较浅的区域（例如，美国，亚洲的最北端和某些格陵兰地区）。该模型对控制垂直混合（低温扰动率）的参数很敏感，但仅当来自植被的垂直碳输入受到限制时，因为垂直混合的影响相对较小。而且，当前的模型结构可能仍然缺乏有效掩埋非顽固性SOC的机制。我们采用基于矩阵的敏感性框架，结合土地碳模型，通过更全面的模型比对和评估来展望未来。

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