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Characterization of Moist Processes Associated With Changes in the Propagation of the MJO With Increasing CO2

机译:与CO 2增加引起的MJO的传播变化有关的潮湿过程的表征

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摘要

The processes that lead to changes in the propagation and maintenance of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a response to increasing CO2 are examined by analyzing moist static energy budget of the MJO in a series of NASA GISS model simulations. It is found changes in MJO propagation is dominated by several key processes. Horizontal moisture advection, a key process for MJO propagation, is found to enhance predominantly due to an increase in the mean horizontal moisture gradients. The terms that determine the strength of the advecting wind anomalies, the MJO horizontal scale and the dry static stability, are found to exhibit opposing trends that largely cancel out. Furthermore, reduced sensitivity of precipitation to changes in column moisture, i.e., a lengthening in the convective moisture adjustment time scale, also opposes enhanced propagation. The dispersion relationship of Adames and Kim, which accounts for all these processes, predicts an acceleration of the MJO at a rate of ∼3.5% K−1, which is consistent with the actual phase speed changes in the simulation. For the processes that contribute to MJO maintenance, it is found that damping by vertical MSE advection is reduced due to the increasing vertical moisture gradient. This weaker damping is nearly canceled by weaker maintenance by cloud‐radiative feedbacks, yielding the growth rate from the linear moisture mode theory nearly unchanged with the warming. Furthermore, the estimated growth rates are found to be a small, negative values, suggesting that the MJO in the simulation is a weakly damped mode.
机译:通过在一系列NASA GISS模型模拟中分析MJO的湿静态能量收支,研究了导致Madden-Julian振荡(MJO)传播和维持变化的过程,以响应增加的CO2。已经发现,MJO传播的变化主要由几个关键过程决定。发现水平水分对流是MJO传播的关键过程,主要由于平均水平水分梯度的增加而增强。确定了确定风向异常强度,MJO水平尺度和干燥静稳定性的术语显示出相反的趋势,这些趋势在很大程度上被抵消了。此外,降低的沉淀对塔中水分变化的敏感性,即延长对流水分调节时间尺度,也反对增强传播。占所有这些过程的Adames和Kim的色散关系预测MJO的加速度约为3.5%K -1 ,这与实际相位速度变化一致。模拟。对于有助于MJO维护​​的过程,发现由于垂直湿度梯度的增加,垂直MSE对流的阻尼降低了。较弱的阻尼几乎被云辐射反馈的较弱维护所抵消,这使得线性湿度模式理论的增长率几乎不会随变暖而变化。此外,发现估计的增长率是一个小的负值,这表明模拟中的MJO是弱阻尼模式。

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