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Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

机译：在碳循环模型中诊断天然陆地生态系统中的磷限制

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Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock‐based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP‐based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP‐based demand and C stock‐based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.
机译：大多数地球系统模型（ESM）项目都在21世纪提高了净初级生产力（NPP）和陆地碳（C）的存储量。尽管有经验证据表明磷（P）的有限供应可能会限制NPP对大气中CO2浓度增加的响应，但先前政府间气候变化专门委员会评估中使用的ESM均未解释P限制。我们从ESM模拟中诊断出，需要使用两种方法来支持自然生态系统碳吸收增加所需的P量：从（1）C储量的变化和（2）NPP的变化得出的需求。代表浓度途径（RCP）2.6和RCP8.5估计的基于C储量的额外P需求分别在-31和193 Tg P之间，以及在-89和262 Tg P之间，负值表示P过剩。基于NPP的需求（考虑了生态系统的P回收）导致RCP2.6的P需求显着增加，分别为648-1606 Tg P和RCP8.5的924-2110 TgP。我们发现，磷需求在分解植物材料时对磷的周转敏感，这解释了基于NPP的需求与基于C库存的需求之间的巨大差异。诊断的磷需求量与实际磷的有效性（潜在的磷亏缺）之间的差异主要取决于有关不同土壤磷形态有效性的假设。总体而言，未来的磷限制在很大程度上取决于土壤磷的有效性和生态系统规模的磷回收。

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