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首页> 外文期刊>Accident Analysis & Prevention >A copula-based approach for jointly modeling crash severity and number of vehicles involved in express bus crashes on expressways considering temporal stability of data
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A copula-based approach for jointly modeling crash severity and number of vehicles involved in express bus crashes on expressways considering temporal stability of data

机译：考虑到数据稳定性的高速公路，基于碰撞撞击严重程度和涉及快速公交车辆的车辆数量的基于Copula的方法

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摘要

The consequences of crashes, including injury, loss of lives, and damage to properties, are further worsened when buses plying expressways are involved in the crash. Previous studies have separately analyzed crash severity in terms of monetary cost, injuries and loss of lives, and the size of crashes in terms of the number of vehicles involved. However, as both outcome variables are correlated, it is imperative to perform a combined analysis using an appropriate econometric model to achieve a better model fit. This study contributes to the literature by jointly exploring the factors influencing the severity and size of express bus-involved crashes that occur on expressways and characterizes the dependence between both outcome variables by employing a more plausible copula regression framework. Likelihood ratio tests were also conducted to investigate the temporal stability of the factors that affect both crash severity and size. Based on the goodness-of-fit statistics, the Frank copula model proved superior to the independent ordered probit model. The estimate of the underlying dependence between the outcome variables provided a better comprehension of the correlation between them. Temporal instability was detected for the individual parameters in the models and is attributed to the changing driving behavior due to the heightened road safety campaigns. The results suggest that traffic exposure measures are significantly associated with a higher propensity of observing increased bus crash severity and size. Insights into the factors influencing the size and severity of express bus crashes are discussed, and appropriate engineering, enforcement, and education-related countermeasures are proposed.
机译：当公共汽车涉及崩溃时，崩溃，包括伤害，生命丧失和物业损失以及物业损失的后果进一步恶化。以前的研究在货币成本，伤害和丧失生活方面分别分析了崩溃严重程度，以及在所涉及的车辆数量方面的崩溃规模。然而，随着结果变量都相关的，它必须使用适当的经济学模型来执行组合分析以实现更好的模型拟合。这项研究通过共同探索了影响高速公路上发生的快速公交碰撞的严重程度和大小的因素有助于这些因素，并通过采用更合理的Copula回归框架来表征两种结果变量之间的依赖。还进行了似然比测试，以研究影响碰撞严重程度和大小的因素的时间稳定性。基于拟合良好统计数据，弗兰克Copula模型总于独立的有序概率模型。结果变量与结果变量之间的基本依赖性提供了更好地理解它们之间的相关性。对于模型中的各个参数检测到时间不稳定性，并且由于道路安全运动而导致的驾驶行为的变化。结果表明，交通曝光措施与观察总线碰撞严重程度和大小增加的倾向显着相关。讨论了影响快速公交车崩溃规模和严重程度的因素的见解，并提出了适当的工程，执法和教育相关的对策。

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