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首页> 外文期刊>Accident Analysis & Prevention >Do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a DWI conviction?
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Do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a DWI conviction?

机译：威慑和社会控制理论是否预测DWI定罪15年后喝酒会开车？

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Objective: This study investigates the utility ot deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (DWI) outcomes of first-time DWI offenders. Method: The sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time DWI offenders (N = 337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a Screening Program in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported DWI at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. These variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of DWI behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory. Results: Both models fit the data. DWI jail time was positively related to perceived enforcement, which was negatively but not significantly related to self-reported DWI. Neither jail time for DWI nor perceived likelihood of arrest was linearly related to self-reported DWI at follow-up. Interactions between jail time and prior DWI behavior indicated relatively weaker associations between initial and 15-year DWI for those reporting more jail time. Conclusion: Our prospective study demonstrated that for this convicted DWI offender cohort, classic formulations of deterrence and social-control theories did not account for DWI. However, results suggest that punishment may decrease the likelihood of DWI recidivism.
机译：目的：本研究调查了威慑和社会控制理论对首次驾驶DWI罪犯的驾驶时损害驾驶（DWI）结果的前瞻性预测。方法：该样本包括544名初犯DWI罪犯（N = 337名女性）的子集，这些罪犯在转诊至新墨西哥州贝纳里洛县的筛查计划后的5年和15年进行了采访。在5年（初始）访谈中收集的变量用于结构方程模型中，以预测过去15个月（随访）访谈中过去3个月的自我报告DWI。这些变量代表了DWI行为的威慑和社会控制理论所定义的领域，其中一种模型对应于威慑理论，一种模型对应于社会控制理论。结果：两种模型均符合数据。 DWI的入狱时间与感知到的执法呈正相关，与自我报告的DWI呈负相关，但无明显关系。 DWI的入狱时间和被捕的可能性均与随访中自我报告的DWI无关。入狱时间与先前的DWI行为之间的相互作用表明，对于报告较多入狱时间的人而言，初始DWI与15年DWI之间的关联相对较弱。结论：我们的前瞻性研究表明，对于这个被定罪的DWI罪犯队列，威慑和社会控制理论的经典表述不能解释DWI。但是，结果表明，惩罚可能会降低DWI再犯的可能性。

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