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Evaluation of rear-end crash risk at work zone using work zone traffic data

机译：使用工作区交通数据评估工作区的后端碰撞风险

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摘要

This paper aims to evaluate the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area and merging area, as well as analyze the impacts of contributing factors by using work zone traffic data. Here, the rear-end crash risk is referred to as the probability that a vehicle is involved in a rear-end crash accident. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is used in measuring rear-end crash risk. Based on work zone traffic data in Singapore, three rear-end crash risk models are developed to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk at activity area and its contributing factors. The fourth rear-end crash risk model is developed to examine the effects of merging behavior on crash risk at merging area. The ANOVA results show that the rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area is statistically different from lane positions. Model results indicate that rear-end crash risk at work zone activity area increases with heavy vehicle percentage and lane traffic flow rate. An interesting finding is that the lane closer to work zone is strongly associated with higher rear-end crash risk. A truck has much higher probability involving in a rear-end accident than a car. Further, the expressway work zone activity area is found to have much larger crash risk than arterial work zone activity area. The merging choice has the dominated effect on risk reduction, suggesting that encouraging vehicles to merge early may be the most effective method to reduce rear-end crash risk at work zone merging area.
机译：本文旨在评估工作区活动区域和合并区域的后端碰撞风险，并通过使用工作区交通数据分析影响因素的影响。在此，后端碰撞风险被称为车辆发生后端碰撞事故的概率。避免碰撞的减速度（DRAC）用于测量后端碰撞风险。根据新加坡的工作区交通数据，开发了三种追尾事故风险模型，以研究活动区域的追尾事故风险及其影响因素之间的关系。开发了第四个后端碰撞风险模型，以检查合并行为对合并区域碰撞风险的影响。方差分析结果表明，工作区活动区域的追尾事故风险在统计学上与车道位置不同。模型结果表明，工作区活动区域的追尾事故风险随重型车辆百分比和车道交通流量的增加而增加。一个有趣的发现是，靠近工作区的车道与更高的追尾事故风险紧密相关。卡车发生追尾事故的可能性比汽车高得多。此外，发现高速公路工作区活动区域比动脉工作区活动区域具有更大的碰撞风险。合并选择对降低风险具有主要作用，这表明鼓励车辆尽早合并可能是降低工作区合并区域追尾事故风险的最有效方法。

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  • 来源
    《Accident Analysis & Prevention》 |2011年第4期|p.1291-1300|共10页
  • 作者

    Qiang Meng; Jinxian Weng;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore 117576, Singapore;

    Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore 117576, Singapore;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    work zone; rear-end crash; stepwise regression; risk;

    机译：工作区;后端崩溃;逐步回归;风险;

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