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Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

机译：铁路公路接口事故预测模型

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摘要

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.
机译：过去的大量研究探索了交通事故与路段的几何设计和运行之间的关系，但是相对较少的研究研究了造成铁路-公路交叉口事故的因素。在1998年至2002年之间，韩国约有95％的铁路事故发生在高速公路-铁路平交道口，造成402起事故，其中约20％的事故导致死亡。这些统计数据表明，为减少这些地点的撞车事故做出的努力可能会大大降低撞车成本。本文的目的是研究与铁路道口撞车有关的因素。各种统计模型用于检查交叉口事故与交叉口特征之间的关系。本文还比较了在美国开发的事故模型和使用韩国数据获得的交叉元素的安全影响。观察到的撞车事故随着总交通量和平均每日火车运量的增加而增加。十字路口到商业区的距离以及火车探测器距十字路口的距离与更多的事故相关，警告信号和闸口激活之间的持续时间也是如此。该论文的独特贡献是应用了伽马概率模型来处理分散不足，以及获得有关与铁路道口相关的车辆碰撞的见解。

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