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Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan

机译：台湾货运车辆事故风险的情景分析

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摘要

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.
机译：本研究利用广义线性交互式模型（GLIM）来分析台湾的主要货运车辆事故，从而建立了定量风险模型。通过相互作用驾驶员年龄，车辆类型和道路类型的三个分类变量来建立八个方案，每个变量包含两个级别。该数据库包含1994年至1998年台湾发生的2043起重大事故，用于拟合和校准模型参数。实证结果表明，在涉及卡车和非高速公路系统的情况下，台湾货车的事故率很高；在涉及成熟驾驶员或非高速公路系统的情况下，事故后果严重。经验证据还表明，事故率与事故后果之间没有显着关系。这是要强调的是，安全性研究仅将风险描述为事故率，而不是将事故率与后果的定义相结合，这可能会导致偏差的风险认知。最后，该研究建议在商用车风险分析中使用车辆数量作为交通暴露的替代方法。这样做的好处是简单，因此可靠。同时，由此产生的风险（称为每辆车死亡人数）可以为保险业务和安全法规提供明确而直接的保单含义。

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