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Taxable Income, Future Earnings, and Equity Values

机译：应税收入，未来收益和权益价值

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摘要

We investigate the ability of a tax-based fundamental ― the ratio of tax-to-book income ― to predict earnings growth and stock returns and to explain the earnings-price ratio. This tax fundamental reflects both temporary and permanent book-tax differences as well as tax accruals, such as changes in the tax valuation allowance. We find that the tax-to-book income ratio predicts subsequent five-year earnings changes, both before and after the implementation of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 109 in 1993. For the pre-SFAS No. 109 period, the tax information is unrelated to contemporaneous earnings-price ratios and strongly related to subsequent stock returns. Conversely, for the post-SFAS No. 109 period, the tax fundamental is strongly related to contemporaneous earnings-price ratios and only weakly related to subsequent stock returns, indicating improvement over time in investors' perceptions of the implications of the tax information for future earnings. Deferred taxes, a component of our tax fundamental and the focus of recent research, exhibits relatively modest ability to predict earnings or stock returns both before and after the implementation of SFAS No. 109. Finally, throughout the examined period, the taxable income information about future earnings is incremental to that in accruals and cash flows.
机译：我们研究了以税收为基础的基本能力（即税收与帐面收入的比率）预测收入增长和股票收益以及解释市盈率的能力。该税收基础反映了临时和永久账面税差异以及应计费用，例如税收评估备抵的变化。我们发现，在1993年实施《财务会计准则第109号》之前和之后，税收/帐面收入比率都将预测随后的五年收益变化。对于109号之前的SFAS，税收信息与同时期的市盈率无关，与随后的股票回报密切相关。相反，对于后SFAS第109期，税收基本面与同期收益/价格比率密切相关，而与随后的股票收益之间的相关性较小，表明投资者随着时间的推移对税收信息对未来的影响的看法有所改善收益。递延税是我们税收基础的组成部分，也是近期研究的重点，在实施SFAS第109号之前和之后，其预测收益或股票收益的能力相对较小。最后，在整个审查期间，关于未来收益相对应计项目和现金流有所增加。

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