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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Meteorologica Sinica >Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia
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Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

机译:东亚长期气候变化的数值模拟

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A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.
机译:使用由大型NCEP / NCAR重新分析驱动的第五代PSU / NCAR中尺度模型版本3(MM5V3),进行了10年的区域气候模拟。冬季和夏季的模拟模拟了区域气候特征和观测结果。结果表明,该模型可以很好地模拟中低水平10年冬季和夏季的平均环流,温度和水分运移。模拟的冬季和夏季平均海平面压力与NCAR / NCEP再分析数据一致。该模型可以很好地模拟冬季平均降水率的分布和强度,以及夏季平均降水率的分布,但它高估了华北地区的夏季平均降水量。该模型在冬季模拟区域气候变化的能力要优于夏季。此外,该模型可以模拟季节性降水和地表气温的年际变化。模拟和观测之间的中高水平的地势高度和温度表现出很高的异常相关系数。该模型还显示出很大的可变性,以模拟与厄尔尼诺事件有关的区域气候变化。 MM5V3很好地模拟了1992年和1995年的夏季平均降水异常,但模拟能力却远低于1998年。总体而言,MM5V3能够模拟区域性气候变化,可用于长期区域性气候变化。气候模拟。

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