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首页> 外文期刊>Advances in Atmospheric Sciences >Multi-model projection of July–August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation
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Multi-model projection of July–August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation

机译：CO2倍增下中国7-8月气候极端变化的多模型预测。第一部分：降水

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摘要

Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ∼50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ∼2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.
机译：根据20世纪耦合模式（20C3M）实验的24种耦合气候模型的输出以及每年1％的数据，分析了中国7月至8月由于CO2加倍引起的极端降水的潜在变化。耦合模型比对项目（CMIP3）的第3阶段的CO2 增加实验（增加一倍）（1pctto2x）。对模型在模拟平均状态方面的性能进行的评估表明，大多数模型都可以公平地再现观测降水的广泛空间格局。但是，所有模型都低估了极端降水约50％。这些模型在青藏高原上的分布是其他地区的2-3倍。在空间模式和降水量方面，分辨率较高的模型通常比分辨率较低的模型表现更好。在1pctto2x情景下，MME极端降水变化的绝对值与模型传播之间的比率大于总降水量的比率，表明极端变化相对较健壮。极端降水的变化比总降水更均匀。对地球物理流体动力学实验室耦合的气候模型版本2.1（GFDL-CM2.1）的输出进行的分析表明，地表温度和水汽含量的空间连续增加导致了中国大陆附近极端降水的大量增加，这是克劳修斯之后的-克拉珀龙关系。而中国东部地区平均降水量变化的子午三极格局主要由水汽汇聚变化决定，而水汽汇聚变化取决于季风环流对全球变暖的响应。

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  • 来源
    《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 |2011年第2期|p.433-447|共15页
  • 作者

    Hongmei Li 李红梅; Lei Feng 冯 蕾; Tianjun Zhou 周天军;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    extreme precipitation; projection; coupled climate model; CO2 doubling;

    机译：极端降水投影耦合气候模式CO2倍增;

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