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Progress in predictability studies in China (2003–2006)

机译：中国可预测性研究的进展（2003-2006年）

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摘要

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly (2003), predictability studies in China have made significant progress. For dynamic forecasts, two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate, which are superior to the corresponding linear theory. A possible mechanism for the “spring predictability barrier” phenomenon for the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was provided based on a theoretical model. To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model, a new initialization scheme was developed, and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments. Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range (monthly) prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations. In statistical forecasts, it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features, and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation. For ensemble forecasts, a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998. Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons. A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation. This new downscaling model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.
机译：自上届国际大地测量与地球物理学联合会（2003年）以来，中国的可预测性研究取得了重大进展。对于动态预报，提出了两种新颖的条件非线性最优摄动和非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法，以应对天气和气候的可预测性问题，优于相应的线性理论。基于理论模型，为厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的“春季可预见性障碍”现象提供了一种可能的机制。为了提高中间耦合ENSO模型的预测能力，开发了一种新的初始化方案，并通过后验实验证明了其适用性。利用重建相空间理论和时空序列预测方法，中国科学家还提出了一种改进动态扩展范围（月度）预测的新方法，并将其成功地应用于短期气候变化的月度尺度可预测性。在统计预测中，发现中国海表温度对降水的影响具有明显的时空分布特征，华东地区夏季降水模式与北方大气环流密切相关。对于整体预报，1998年6月8日使用一种新的初始摄动法来预报广东和福建省的大雨。此外，还采用整体预报方法来预报热带台风。提供了一种由动力学和统计方法组成的新的降尺度模型，以改善对月平均降水量的预测。这种新的降尺度模型显示出比发布的运营预测更高的分数。

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  • 来源
    《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 |2007年第6期|1086-1098|共13页
  • 作者

    Wansuo Duan 段晚锁; Zhina Jiang 姜智娜; Hui Xu 徐辉;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China;

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China;

    State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    predictability; prediction; perturbation; weather; climate;

    机译：可预测性;预测;摄动;天气;气候;

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