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Forecast of pollination dates and relation to onset of allergic pathology

机译：授粉日期的预测及其与过敏性病理的关系

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Forecasting pollination would help allergists to establish an appropriate prevention for allergic patients. Previous studies have related meteorological variables to airborne pollen counts; patients suffer allergy episodes before the peak of pollen is reached. A 10-year study was done in Saint-Etienne (France) by a multi-disciplinary team (medical doctors, meteorologists, plant biologists). The frequency distribution of patients with pollinosis was obtained from mid-January to August every year. The meteorological station recorded the temperatures daily; pollen counts were obtained with a pollen trap. The maturation stages of trees (ash, birch) and graminaceae (dactyl and meadow grass) were followed by weekly sampling and provided the exact date of pollination. Mathematical models were built to predict the developmental stages of plant growth and the values were compared with the exact dates obtained every year. The frequency distribution of allergic patients was either mono or biphasic according to the evolution of daily temperatures. The maximum peak of patients always preceded the peak of graminaceae over the 10-year period. Different models were found to adequately predict the pollination dates: a Q_(10)-based algorithm best described the pollination date of trees; a weighted Q_(10) algorithm best reflected the pollination of graminaceae.
机译：预测授粉将有助于过敏者为过敏患者建立适当的预防措施。先前的研究已经将气象变量与空气中的花粉计数相关联。患者在花粉达到峰值之前遭受过敏发作。一个多学科团队（医生，气象学家，植物生物学家）在法国圣艾蒂安进行了为期10年的研究。每年1月中旬至8月获得花粉病患者的频率分布。气象台每天记录温度；花粉计数是通过花粉陷阱获得的。树木（灰，桦木）和禾本科（灵长类和草甸草）的成熟阶段之后，每周取样，并提供授粉的确切日期。建立数学模型以预测植物生长的发育阶段，并将其值与每年获得的确切日期进行比较。根据每日温度的变化，过敏患者的频率分布为单相或双相。在10年期间，患者的最大峰值总是先于禾本科的峰值。发现不同的模型可以充分预测授粉日期：基于Q_（10）的算法最能描述树木的授粉日期；加权Q_（10）算法最能反映禾本科的授粉。

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