In the Gulf region, the dominating military factor in the past two years is the Iraq war of 2003 and its repercussions. It is now generally accepted that there have been major mistakes at the strategic level and the result of this power vacuum is difficult to assess at this stage. While in Western circles, Vietnam is mentioned in the context of US involvement in Iraq, others point to Lebanon as a template if matters continue to lurch towards civil war. Elsewhere, though it seems unlikely that the US (and/or) its allies or other Western nations will intervene militarily in Iran, there has been growing concern about Tehran's nuclear ambitions — especially when this is coupled with their undoubted know-how in ballistic missile technology. Should matters deteriorate, a surgical strike on the nuclear facilities in the style of Israel's 1981 attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere in the Gulf, there are signs that, for the moment, military spending will be reduced, at least temporarily. First, one of the major destabilising elements, that of an unpredictable Iraq, has been removed. Secondly, with US and coalition forces now in for the long haul, there is less pressing need to upgrade forces than before.
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