The Effects of Bank Reforms on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Egypt

Monal Abdel-Baki

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The Effects of Bank Reforms on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Egypt

机译：新兴市场经济国家银行改革对货币传导机制的影响：来自埃及的证据

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Abstract: This paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy after the adoption of bank reforms in emerging market economies (EMEs). The Egyptian case is empirically studied to test the efficacy of the banking sector as a transmission agent subsequent to the banking reforms that extended from 1991 to 2009. The structural vector autoregressive methodology is employed to investigate the impact of the interest rate and foreign exchange rate channels on output and inflation. The results of the study reveal several interactions among the two types of channels. Second, interest rate intervention proves to have substantial effects on output, but less on inflation. Third, exchange rate intervention has some effects on inflation, but less on output. Thus, both transmission channels have showed superior effectiveness after the banking reform. This indicates that the Central Bank of Egypt should not continue to depend on the interest rate channel alone, but has to additionally utilize the exchange rate channel in order to successfully achieve inflation targeting that has been its prime goal since 2003 and even more after the global food crisis of 2007/8. This ruling could prove functional when conducting monetary policy in EMEs of similar circumstances to Egypt.

机译：摘要：本文研究了新兴市场经济体（EME）通过银行改革后货币政策向实体经济的传导。对埃及案例进行了实证研究，以检验从1991年至2009年的银行业改革之后银行业作为传播媒介的有效性。采用结构矢量自回归方法研究利率和汇率渠道的影响关于产出和通货膨胀。研究结果揭示了两种渠道之间的几种相互作用。其次，事实证明，利率干预对产出具有实质性影响，但对通货膨胀影响较小。第三，汇率干预对通货膨胀有一定影响，但对产出影响较小。因此，银行改革后，这两种传播渠道均显示出出众的效果。这表明埃及中央银行不应继续仅依靠利率渠道，而必须额外利用汇率渠道，以成功实现自2003年以来一直是其主要目标的通货膨胀目标，甚至在全球金融危机之后也是如此。 2007/8年的粮食危机。当在与埃及类似的情况下的新兴市场经济体中执行货币政策时，该裁决可能会起作用。

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《African Development Review》 |2010年第4期|p.526-539|共14页
作者
Monal Abdel-Baki;
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机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

The Effects of Bank Reforms on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from Egypt

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