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Statistical analysis of winter ozone events

机译：冬季臭氧事件的统计分析

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We have developed quadratic regression models that predict the daily ozone concentration in either the Uintah Basin (UB) of Utah, USA, or the Upper Green River Basin (UGRB) of Wyoming, USA. Sites selected for study are ozone stations near the towns of Ouray, Utah, in the UB and Boulder, Wyoming, in the UGRB. Input data for the UB model are daily values of lapse rate, snow depth, solar angle, temperature, and the number of consecutive days under inversion conditions. The UGRB model also requires the wind speed. Standard errors are 10 and 5 ppb for the UB and the UGRB, respectively. The models have been optimized to predict seasonal exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), i.e., the number of times each season that the daily maximum in the eight-hour running average exceeds 75 ppb, and they perform in this regard to an accuracy of ±1 day. (However, Ouray is not at this time a regulatory site for judging compliance with federal law.) We predict that any given winter will be NAAQS compliant with 44 % odds in the UB and with 60 % odds in the UGRB. We have estimated the ozone production for each winter in the UB since 1950, under the assumption that precursor emissions are at modern values.
机译：我们已经开发了二次回归模型，可以预测美国犹他州的尤坦湖盆地（UB）或美国怀俄明州的上游绿河盆地（UGRB）的每日臭氧浓度。选择进行研究的地点是UB犹他州乌拉伊镇附近和UGRB怀俄明州博尔德市附近的臭氧站。 UB模型的输入数据是日变化率，降雪深度，太阳角，温度以及反演条件下连续天数的日数值。 UGRB模型还需要风速。 UB和UGRB的标准误分别为10和5 ppb。这些模型已经过优化，可以预测国家环境空气质量标准（NAAQS）的季节性超标情况，即，每个季节八小时平均运行中的每日最大值超过75 ppb的次数，并且在此方面，精度为±1天。 （但是，乌雷目前不是判断是否遵守联邦法律的监管机构。）我们预计，任何给定的冬季都将符合NAAQS的规定，UB中的几率是44％，而UGRB中的几率是60％。在前体排放量处于现代值的假设下，我们估计了自1950年以来UB中每个冬季的臭氧产量。

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