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Alternative Futures Analysis as a Complement to Planning Processes for the Use of Military Land

机译：替代性期货分析作为对军事用地规划过程的补充

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What transpires outside an installation's perimeter influences mission readiness over the long term. That is why Air Force installations invest heavily in collaborative partnering with offbase agencies to develop plans within a regional context.1 Ensuring the long-term mission effectiveness of military lands requires that commanders and planners at higher echelons anticipate future conditions, including growth of the regional population and development patterns that may contribute to encroachment.2 In addition to considering off-base conditions, commanders also recognize that a linear focus in their planning can lead to tunnel vision, leaving the base vulnerable to surprises. How can one counter this potential myopia? This article presents an approach called alternative futures analysis (AFA), which the authors are currently conducting at Nellis AFB, Nevada. The Department of Defense (DOD) has employed this innovative approach at several Army and Marine Corps installations to un- veil a variety of plausible regional outcomes or "futures" affecting installation projects. Given the successful application in these test locations, the DOD should apply AFA to any future land use study. This article explains alternative futures, including their development and use, and illustrates how the process works by comparing it to military operational planning. Finally, it examines the utility of this approach for installations—how AFA can enhance current installation-planning processes.
机译：从长远来看，发生在设施外围的事情会影响任务的准备状态。因此，空军部队大量投资于与基地外机构的合作伙伴关系，以在区域范围内制定计划。1要确保军事用地的长期任务有效性，要求高层的指挥官和计划人员预见未来情况，包括区域的增长人口和发展模式可能会造成侵占。2除了考虑基地外的条件外，指挥官还意识到，规划中的线性重点可能会导致隧道视野开阔，使基地容易受到突袭。如何应对这种潜在的近视眼？本文介绍了一种称为替代期货分析（AFA）的方法，作者目前正在内华达州的Nellis AFB进行该方法。国防部（DOD）已在陆军和海军陆战队的几个装置中采用了这种创新方法，以揭示影响安装工程的各种可能的地区成果或“未来”。鉴于在这些测试地点的成功应用，国防部应将AFA应用于未来的土地利用研究。本文介绍了替代性未来，包括其开发和使用，并通过将其与军事作战计划进行比较来说明该过程的工作方式。最后，它研究了这种方法对安装的实用性-AFA如何增强当前的安装规划流程。

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