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Impact of Uncertainty on the Prediction of Airspace Complexity of Congested Sectors

机译：不确定性对拥挤部门空域复杂性预测的影响

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摘要

The ability of traffic controllers to separate aircraft determines the capacity of the region of airspace under their control, referred to as a sector. Complexity metrics, specifically dynamic density, is used as an estimate for controller workload. The prediction of dynamic density is required for the development of efficient strategic air traffic flow plans. This paper explores the influence of trajectory errors and unexpected aircraft on the prediction of dynamic density. A worst-case analysis is used to describe the conditions under which forecast uncertainty may lead to excessive complexity. Although the approach has general applicability, it is described using one complexity metric. Depending on the sector and the complexity function, when a sector is highly congested, the method identifies aircraft entering the sector at certain locations, boundaries, and altitudes, whose errors in prediction impact the increase in workload significantly. Results based on the analysis of 72 days of traffic data in the Atlanta Center show that the impact of prediction errors on complexity depends on the direction and altitude of the traffic. The normalized increase in complexity due to prediction errors in Sector ZTL50 is two times or higher for traffic coming from ZTL42 as compared with traffic coming from ZTL32. The analysis is repeated for Atlanta Sector ZTL06 and Washington Center Sector ZDC37 to show the applicability of the method to other sectors. For certain types of incoming traffic, if these errors cannot be reduced, it may be necessary to limit the traffic approaching the sector from these boundaries and altitudes.
机译：交通管制员分离飞机的能力决定了他们控制下的空域区域的容量，称为扇区。复杂度指标，特别是动态密度，用作控制器工作负载的估计。动态密度的预测是制定有效的战略空中交通流量计划所必需的。本文探讨了轨迹误差和意外飞机对动态密度预测的影响。最坏情况分析用于描述预测不确定性可能导致过度复杂性的条件。尽管该方法具有普遍适用性，但使用一种复杂性度量进行了描述。根据扇区和复杂性函数，当一个扇区高度拥塞时，该方法可以识别进入某些位置，边界和高度的飞机，其预测误差会严重影响工作量的增加。根据亚特兰大中心72天交通数据的分析结果表明，预测误差对复杂性的影响取决于交通的方向和高度。与来自ZTL32的流量相比，归因于扇区ZTL50的预测误差的归一化复杂度增加是来自ZTL42的流量的两倍或更高。对亚特兰大部门ZTL06和华盛顿中心部门ZDC37进行了重复分析，以显示该方法对其他部门的适用性。对于某些类型的传入流量，如果无法减少这些错误，则可能有必要限制从这些边界和高度进入扇区的流量。

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  • 来源
    《Air Traffic Control Quarterly》 |2011年第1期|p.1-21|共21页
  • 作者

    Banavar Sridhar; Deepak Kulkarni; Kapil Sheth;

  • 作者单位

    The authors are with NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA;

    The authors are with NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA;

    The authors are with NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA;

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