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Recovery 2004: Gaining Strength

机译：2004年复苏：实力增强

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A subdued optimism flowed through the airline industry as the closing months of 2003 began to show positive signs-combined with rising economies and the absence of disease scares, major terror attacks and wars-that give credence to the belief that 2004 finally will start the recovery process the industry so desperately needs. Clouding a clear vision of what is going on is the statistical distortion created by the Iraq war and SARS that will make a half-decent spring and early summer look like a runaway success. But absent extraordinary events, it is clear that 2004 will be an improvement for everybody. The big swing elements are the price of oil, which likely will go down but could go up, and any change on the conflict and health fronts around the world, which have much larger negative potentials. Nonetheless, the recovery is being greeted with delight, although the amount of joy varies greatly with the type and location of each airline. The Asia/Pacific region, for example, is poised to reclaim the vigorous growth that was interrupted so rudely by last spring's SARS outbreak, with strong economic growth pushing traffic levels back up to pre-SARS levels for most before year end 2003 but yields still climbing toward parity with pre-SARS levels.
机译：随着2003年底的几个月开始显示出积极的迹象，加上经济增长，没有疾病恐慌，重大恐怖袭击和战争，使航空业情绪低落，这使人们相信2004年终于将开始复苏迫切需要该行业的流程。伊拉克战争和SARS造成的统计失真使发生的事情变得清晰，这使春季和初夏过半像样的成功。但是如果没有特别的事件，很显然，2004年对于每个人来说都是一个进步。波动最大的因素是石油价格，它可能会下降但可能会上升，以及世界各地冲突和卫生方面的任何变化，其潜在潜力更大。尽管如此，尽管每个航空公司的类型和位置所带来的欢乐程度差异很大，但复苏仍令人欣喜。例如，亚太地区已准备好恢复由去年春天的SARS爆发如此无礼地中断的强劲增长，强劲的经济增长在2003年底之前的大部分时间内使交通水平回升至SARS之前的水平，但收益仍然攀升至非典前的水平。

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