On its face, the apparent drop in demand for air travel appears to portend misgivings for those wanting an aviation career as pilots or mechanics. We should not forget that pre-pandemic. the worldwide aviation industry was bemoaning an historic shortage in pilots and mechanics. The pandemic has not and will not make that shortage go away. There will be an unprecedented shortage of both pilots and aircraft mechanics in the medium and long term. First, the US aviation industry faces an epic rate of pilot retirements. Over the next six years, 42 percent of pilots at Alaska Airlines, United, American, Delta and Southwest face mandatory retirement. The same carriers' maintenance professionals have an average age in the high 50's. Regardless of how long the economic recovery takes, these demographics portend an unprecedented number of pilots and mechanics leaving the workforce in the next few years. And when traffic returns-which could be within the next three years, according to a leading financial magazine and a Wall Street airline analyst-these retirements will leave the industry short of trained professionals.
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