Prediction: The Long and the Short of It

ANTONY MILLNER; DANIEL HEYEN

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Prediction: The Long and the Short of It

机译：预测：它的漫长而缺乏

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Commentators often lament forecasters' inability to provide precise predictions of the long-run behavior of complex economic and physical systems. Yet their concerns often conflate the presence of substantial long-run uncertainty with the need for long-run predictability; short-run predictions can partially substitute for long-run predictions if decision-makers can adjust their activities over time. So what is the relative importance of short- and long-run predictability? We study this question in a model of rational dynamic adjustment to a changing environment. Even if adjustment costs, discount factors, and long-run uncertainty are large, short-run predictability can be much more important than long-run predictability.

机译：评论员常常哀叹预测人员无法提供复杂经济和物理系统的长期行为的精确预测。然而，他们的担忧通常会使存在大量的长期不确定性，需要长期可预测性;如果决策者可以随着时间的推移调整他们的活动，则短期预测可以部分替代用于长期预测。那么短期和长期可预测性的相对重要性是什么？我们在改变环境的合理动态调整模型中研究了这个问题。即使调整成本，折扣因素和长期不确定性也很大，短期可预测性可能比长期可预测性更重要。

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《American economic journal》 |2021年第1期|374-398|共25页
作者
ANTONY MILLNER; DANIEL HEYEN;
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作者单位

Department of Economics North Hall UC Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CA 93106;

Integrative Risk Management and Economics ETH Zurich Zuerichbergstrasse 18 8092 Zurich Switzerland;

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Prediction: The Long and the Short of It

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