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首页> 外文期刊>American journal of applied sciences >Credit Market Development and Economic Growth an Empirical Analysis for Greece
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Credit Market Development and Economic Growth an Empirical Analysis for Greece

机译：信贷市场发展与经济增长对希腊的实证分析

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Problem statement: This study investigated the relationship between credit market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1979-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Questions were raised whether economic growth spurs credit market development taking into account the negative effect of inflation rate on credit market development. This study aimed to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between bank lending, gross domestic product and inflation rate applying the Johansen cointegration analysis. Approach: To achieve this objective classical and panel unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen cointegration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are cointegrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between economic growth and credit market development. Results: A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induces an increase of bank lending 2.2%, while an increase of inflation rate per 1% induces a relative decrease of bank lending per 5.6% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term is statistically significant and has a negative sign, which confirms that there is not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. Conclusion: The empirical results indicated that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth and credit market development for Greece.
机译：问题陈述：本研究使用矢量误差校正模型（VECM）研究了1979-2007年希腊信贷市场发展与经济增长之间的关系。考虑到通货膨胀率对信贷市场发展的负面影响，有人提出了经济增长是否会刺激信贷市场发展的问题。这项研究旨在利用Johansen协整分析来研究银行贷款，国内生产总值和通货膨胀率之间的短期和长期关系。方法：为了实现此目标，对所有时间序列数据的水平和最初差异进行了经典和面板单位根检验。应用Johansen协整分析，以考虑最大特征值和跟踪统计检验，检查变量是否以相同顺序协整。最后，选择矢量误差校正模型来研究经济增长与信贷市场发展之间的长期关系。结果：在希腊，每1％的短期经济增长会导致银行贷款增加2.2％，而每1％的通货膨胀率增加会导致银行贷款相对减少5.6％。估计的误差校正项在统计上是显着的，并且具有负号，这表明在检查的变量之间的长期均衡中没有任何问题。结论：实证结果表明，希腊的经济增长与信贷市场发展之间存在长期的关系。

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