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首页> 外文期刊>American Journal of Political Science >Who “Wins”? Determining the Party of the Prime Minister
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Who “Wins”? Determining the Party of the Prime Minister

机译：谁赢”？确定总理党

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摘要

The prime ministership is the preeminent political post in parliamentary democracies. Yet few studies examine PM party choice, perhaps under the assumption that the choice is a simple function of party size. In this article, we argue that key strategic actors and the context in which government negotiations take place can play a critical role in PM party choice. We test our hypotheses using a mixed logit with random coefficients on an original data set comprising PM selection opportunities in 28 European countries. Our methodological approach allows us to incorporate qualitative concerns about heterogeneity and causal complexity into our analysis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the largest party is often disadvantaged when it comes to PM party choice, that some presidents play an influential role in choosing the PM, and that the value of being the incumbent depends on one’s performance in office and how the previous government ended.
机译：总理职位是议会民主制中的重要政治职位。然而，很少有研究检查PM政党的选择，也许是假设选择是政党规模的简单函数。在本文中，我们认为关键的战略角色和政府进行谈判的环境可以在总理党的选择中发挥关键作用。我们在包含28个欧洲国家的PM选择机会的原始数据集上使用带有随机系数的混合logit检验了我们的假设。我们的方法论方法使我们能够将关于异质性和因果复杂性的定性关注纳入我们的分析。与传统观点相反，我们发现，在选择总理党时，最大的党派常常处于不利地位，一些总统在选择总理时起着重要作用，而任职者的价值取决于一个人在办公室的表现以及如何上届政府结束了。

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