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Electoral Selection with Parties and Primaries

机译：与政党和初选的选举选择

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摘要

We develop a model of intraparty candidate selection under partisan electoral competition and voter uncertainty. Candidates for office belong to parties, which are factions of ideologically similar candidates. Each party’s candidate for a general election can be selected either by a “centralized” mechanism that effectively randomizes over possible candidates or by voters in a primary election. The electorate cares about ideology and valence, and both primary and general elections may reveal candidate valences. Our main theoretical result is that while primaries raise the expected quality of a party’s candidates, they may hurt the ex ante preferred party in a competitive electorate by increasing the chances of revealing the opposing party’s candidates as superior. Thus, primaries are adopted in relatively extreme districts where a clear favorite party exists. An empirical analysis of the adoption of direct primaries and the competitiveness of primary elections across U.S. states supports these predictions.
机译：我们建立了党派选举竞争和选民不确定性下的党内候选人选择模型。上任的候选人属于政党，是思想上相似的候选人派系。可以通过有效地对可能的候选人进行随机分配的“集中式”机制，或由初选中的选民来选择每一党的大选候选人。选民们关心的是意识形态和效价，初选和大选都可能显示候选人的效价。我们的主要理论结果是，虽然初选提高了政党候选人的预期素质，但他们可能通过增加揭露反对党候选人为上等候选人的机会而伤害竞争性选民的事前优先政党。因此，在存在明确的最爱党的相对极端的地区中采用了主要选民。对采用直接初选和美国各州初选的竞争力进行的经验分析支持了这些预测。

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