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Estimating Omissions From Searches

机译:估算搜索遗漏

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摘要

The mark-recapture method was devised by Petersen in 1896 to estimate the number of fish migrating into the Limfjord, and independently by Lincoln in 1930 to estimate waterfowl abundance. The technique can be applied to any search for a finite number of items by two or more people or agents, allowing the number of searched-for items to be estimated. This ubiquitous problem appears in fields from ecology and epidemiology, through to mathematics, social sciences, and computing. Here, we exactly calculate the moments of the hypergeomet-ric distribution associated with this longstanding problem, confirming that widely used estimates conjectured in 1951 are often too small. Our Bayesian approach highlights how different search strategies will modify the estimates. The estimates are applied to several examples. For some published applications, substantial errors are found to result from using the Chapman or Lincoln-Petersen estimates. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
机译:商标重夺法是彼得森(Petersen)在1896年设计的,用于估计移入林峡湾的鱼的数量,而林肯(Lincoln)在1930年独立地设计,用于估计水禽的数量。该技术可以应用于由两个或更多人员或代理商对有限数量的商品进行的任何搜索,从而可以估计搜索到的商品的数量。这个普遍存在的问题出现在从生态学和流行病学到数学,社会科学和计算机等领域。在这里,我们精确地计算了与这个长期存在的问题有关的超几何分布的矩,这证实了在1951年被广泛使用的估计值通常太小。我们的贝叶斯方法强调了不同的搜索策略将如何修改估算值。该估计将应用于几个示例。对于某些已发布的应用程序,使用Chapman或Lincoln-Petersen估计会导致重大错误。可在线获得本文的补充材料。

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