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首页> 外文期刊>Annals of nuclear energy >Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a reduced-order model of nonlinear BWR dynamics. Ⅲ: Uncertainty analysis results
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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a reduced-order model of nonlinear BWR dynamics. Ⅲ: Uncertainty analysis results

机译：非线性BWR动力学下降阶模型的敏感性与不确定性分析。 Ⅲ：不确定性分析结果

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This work presents a paradigm analysis of the standard deviations induced in the state functions of a reduced-order model of Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) dynamics by the standard deviations in this model's imprecisely known parameters and initial conditions. This analysis is performed in the model's stable region in phase-space, where the state functions converge asymptotically to finite, time-independent values, as well as in the regions in phase-space where the model's state functions asymptotically evolve into periodic limit-cycle oscillations. The region in phase-space where the model's state functions behave chaotically is also analyzed. The standard deviations of the state functions in the various regions in phase-space are computed using the first-order sensitivities of the state functions with respect to the model's imprecisely known parameters and initial conditions. It is shown that in the stable region, the standard deviations induced by the imprecisely known model parameters and initial conditions in each of the BWR-model's state functions are very large immediately after perturbing the initially critical reactor, reaching values that are about 10 times larger than the respective state functions themselves. Although these standard deviations decay to small values after about 140 s into the transient, the amplitudes of the oscillations of these standard deviations at the start of the transient are so large as to possibly cause the BWR-system to transit from the stable region into an oscillatory region in phase-space. In the limit-cycle oscillatory regions in phase space, as well as in the chaotic region, the standard deviations of the state functions are very large, so that an accurate prediction of the actual value of the respective state functions has a low probability of success. The results obtained in this work indicate that the methods used herein should be implemented into the models used for the design and routine analysis of BWRs, in order to quantify deterministically the uncertainties induced into the operational characteristics of BWRs by the imprecisely known parameters underlying these models, particularly when BWRs are operated close to the limits of their stability regions/maps. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：该工作介绍了通过该模型中的标准偏差在沸点水反应器（BWR）动力学的稳定阶模型的状态函数中诱导的标准偏差的范例分析，该模型中的标准偏差是不精确的已知参数和初始条件的标准偏差。该分析在模型在相位空间中的稳定区域中执行，其中状态功能会聚到有限的，时间无关的值，以及模型状态函数渐近地发展到周期性限制周期的区域中的区域中振荡。还分析了模型的状态函数的相位空间中的区域。使用相对于模型的不精确已知参数和初始条件，使用状态函数的一阶灵敏度来计算状态空间中的各个区域中的状态函数的标准偏差。结果表明，在稳定区域中，在扰动最初关键的反应堆后，通过BWR模型的状态函数中的每个BWR模型的状态函数中的不切实际的模型参数和初始条件引起的标准偏差非常大，达到大约10倍的值比相应的国家功能本身。虽然这些标准偏差在约140秒到瞬态之后衰减到小值，但是在瞬态开始时这些标准偏差的振荡的振幅非常大，以便可能导致BWR系统从稳定区域传输到一个相位空间中的振荡区域。在相位空间中的极限周期振荡区域中，以及在混沌区域中，状态函数的标准偏差非常大，因此精确地预测各个状态函数的实际值具有低的成功概率。在该工作中获得的结果表明，本文所用的方法应该被实施到用于BWR的设计和常规分析的模型，以便量化在这些模型的不切实际的已知参数中的确定性地引起的不合格的不确定参数。特别是当BWR被操作接近其稳定区域/地图的限制时。 （c）2020 elestvier有限公司保留所有权利。

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