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A data-driven approach for predicting failure scenarios in nuclear systems

机译:预测核系统故障场景的数据驱动方法

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A data-driven approach is presented for the on-line identification of the system Failure Mode (FM) and the prediction of the available Recovery Time (RT) during a failure scenario, i.e., the time remaining until the system can no longer perform its function in an irreversible manner. The FM identification and RT prediction modules are linked in a general framework that recognizes the patterns of dynamic evolution of the process variables in the different system failure modes. When a new failure scenario develops, its evolution pattern is compared by fuzzy similarity analysis to a library of reference multidimensional trajectory patterns of process variables evolution; the failure mode of the developing scenario is identified by combining the modes of failure of the reference patterns, weighed by their similarity to the developing pattern; the similarity weights are then fed to the RT prediction module that estimates the time remaining before the developing trajectory pattern hits a failure threshold.rnThe approach is illustrated on failure scenarios of the Lead-Bismuth Eutectic experimental Accelerator Driven System (LBE-XADS). The accident scenarios are classified in three different system failure modes, depending on the value reached by the diathermic oil secondary coolant temperature with respect to maximum and minimum safety threshold values set to avoid primary coolant thermal shocks and degradation of the oil physical and chemical properties.
机译:提出了一种数据驱动的方法,用于在线识别系统故障模式(FM)和预测故障情况下的可用恢复时间(RT),即直到系统不再执行其工作所需的剩余时间。以不可逆转的方式运作。 FM识别和RT预测模块在通用框架中链接,该框架可识别不同系统故障模式下过程变量的动态演变模式。当出现新的故障场景时,通过模糊相似性分析将其演化模式与过程变量演化的参考多维轨迹模式库进行比较;通过结合参考模式的失败模式,并通过参考模式与开发模式的相似性进行权衡,确定发展情景的失败模式;然后将相似权重输入到RT预测模块,该模块估计在发展轨迹模式达到故障阈值之前的剩余时间。该方法在铅铋共晶实验加速器驱动系统(LBE-XADS)的故障场景中得到了说明。根据放热油二次冷却液温度达到的最大和最小安全阈值(为避免一次冷却液热冲击和油的物理和化学性能下降)而设定的值,将事故情景分为三种不同的系统故障模式。

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  • 来源
    《Annals of nuclear energy》 |2010年第4期|p.482-491|共10页
  • 作者单位

    Energy Department, Polytechnic of Milan, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano, Italy;

    rnEnergy Department, Polytechnic of Milan, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano, Italy;

    rnEnergy Department, Polytechnic of Milan, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano, Italy;

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