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Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input-output framework

机译：整合零散的区域和次区域社会经济预测和分析：空间区域计量经济投入产出框架

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摘要

This study presents an integrated socioeconomic forecasting and analysis framework: a spatial regional econometric input-output model and its application to the Chicago metropolitan area. The new framework is designed to overcome some limitations of existing models, particularly (1) limited consideration of population-employment interactions and (2) dominance of top-down approach to vertical integration of regional and subregional variables. It captures local and lower level conditions and their effects on macroeconomic variables by using a modified disequilibrium adjustment model that incorporates subregional dynamics into a regional econometric input-output model in a reciprocal, interactive manner, as opposed to a top-down allocation process. The framework also considers both region-wide and subregional level population-employment interactions more systematically. It is demonstrated that the present model can support socioeconomic forecasting and a broad range of analyses, including the examinations of the macroeconomic impacts of local actions.
机译：这项研究提出了一个综合的社会经济预测和分析框架：一个空间区域计量经济投入产出模型及其在芝加哥都市圈中的应用。新框架旨在克服现有模型的某些局限性，特别是（1）人口与就业相互作用的有限考虑；（2）自上而下的方法在区域和次区域变量的垂直整合中占主导地位。它通过使用修正的不平衡调整模型来捕获局部和较低水平的条件及其对宏观经济变量的影响，该模型以对等，交互的方式将分区域动力学纳入区域计量经济输入输出模型，而不是自上而下的分配过程。该框架还更加系统地考虑了区域范围和次区域级别的人口－就业互动。结果表明，本模型可以支持社会经济预测和广泛的分析，包括对地方行动的宏观经济影响的检验。

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    《The Annals of regional science》 |2012年第2期|p.485-513|共29页
  • 作者

    Jae Hong Kim; Geoffrey J. D. Hewings;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Landscape Architecture/Regional and Community Planning, Kansas State University, 3031 Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA;

    Department of Economics, Geography, Government and Public Affairs, Urban and Regional Planning, Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 607S. Matthews, Urbana, IL 61801, USA;

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