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Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example

机译：评估当年的当年预测：日本的例子

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摘要

Forecasts for the current year that are made sometime during the current year are not true annual forecasts because they include already known information for the early part of the year. The current methodology that evaluates these ‘forecasts’ does not take into account the known information. This article presents a methodology for calculating an implicit forecast for the latter part of a year conditional on the known information. We then apply the procedure to Japanese forecasts for 1988-2003 and analyse some of the characteristics of those predictions.View full textDownload full textRelated var addthis_config = { ui_cobrand: "Taylor & Francis Online", services_compact: "citeulike,netvibes,twitter,technorati,delicious,linkedin,facebook,stumbleupon,digg,google,more", pubid: "ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b" }; Add to shortlist Link Permalink http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850802297848
机译：在当年某个时候进行的对当年的预测不是真正的年度预测，因为它们包含了当年早期的已知信息。当前评估这些“预测”的方法并未考虑已知信息。本文介绍了一种方法，用于根据已知信息计算下半年的隐含预测。然后，我们将该程序应用于1988-2003年的日本天气预报，并分析这些预报的一些特征。 ，delicious，linkedin，facebook，stumbleupon，digg，google，more“，发布编号：” ra-4dff56cd6bb1830b“};添加到候选列表链接永久链接http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850802297848

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