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Toward a new deal for Saudi Arabia: oil or Islamic stock market investment?

机译:为沙特阿拉伯达成一项新协议:石油或伊斯兰股票市场投资?

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摘要

Amid the ongoing national development programme of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Vision 2030, a large trade openness plan to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil and to diversify its economy is announced. This study investigates whether or not the related diversification option through openness towards the Islamic stock market would benefit Saudi Arabia's economy. To this end, we consider data on oil price and Islamic stock investment, evaluate their interactions through vector autoregressive modelling and estimate the impulse response functions. Further, we perform portfolio simulations and measure further diversification benefits. First, we find that the risk of the economy's dependency on the crude oil industry is not rejected, given the recent strong deterioration of oil returns. Second, the portfolio simulations highlight that the consideration of investment in Islamic stock shares not only generates diversification benefits but also provides a portfolio with the highest returns and lowest financial risk, for which we compute the optimal composition. Third, the analysis of the impulse response functions shows that the investment in the Islamic stock market in Saudi Arabia implies positive effects on the oil industry, which is a priori favourable to the recent challenge of undertaking the national development programme, Saudi Vision 2030.
机译:在沙特阿拉伯正在进行的国家发展计划,《沙特阿拉伯2030年远景规划》中,宣布了一项大规模的贸易开放计划,以减少沙特阿拉伯对石油的依赖并使其经济多样化。这项研究调查了通过对伊斯兰股票市场开放而进行的相关多元化选择是否会有利于沙特阿拉伯的经济。为此,我们考虑了石油价格和伊斯兰股票投资的数据,通过矢量自回归模型评估了它们之间的相互作用,并估计了脉冲响应函数。此外,我们进行投资组合模拟并衡量进一步的多元化收益。首先,我们发现,鉴于近期石油收益的大幅下降,经济依赖原油行业的风险并未被拒绝。其次,投资组合模拟突出表明,对伊斯兰股票投资的考虑不仅产生了多元化收益,而且还提供了具有最高收益和最低金融风险的投资组合,我们可以据此计算出最佳的投资组合。第三,对冲激响应函数的分析表明,对沙特阿拉伯伊斯兰股票市场的投资对石油行业产生了积极影响,这先验地有利于最近接受国家发展计划《沙特愿景2030》的挑战。

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