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Understanding the equilibrium dynamics of European broadband diffusion

机译：了解欧洲宽带扩散的均衡动力

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摘要

This study examines the equilibrium dynamics of European broadband markets within a simultaneous demand and supply model. Unlike alternative reduced-form approaches, our model explicitly incorporates key features of the demand for network services: a bell-shaped distribution of heterogeneous consumers and presence of network effects. Our empirical analysis of European countries reveals that although the demand for broadband services exhibits strong network effects they are not 'strong enough' to archive critical mass in these markets. Furthermore, the systems equilibrium dynamics show that even though the technology is introduced at very high prices initially, the expansion of suppliers' infrastructure investment reduces the equilibrium prices rapidly in the first few years. This price reduction, combined with strong network effects, stimulates expansion of the subscription base until consumers at the peak of the distribution enter the market. Convergence to the steady state happens at around 8 years for service price and 15 years for subscription. Comparative static analysis illustrates that steady state equilibrium subscription relates positively to national population density, inter-platform concentration, and the share of unbundled local loop, while the equilibrium price relates inversely to these factors. Other supply and demand factors (viz. intra-platform concentration, income and education) have minimal impact on the steady state equilibrium.
机译：本研究在同时供需模型中研究了欧洲宽带市场的均衡动态。与替代的缩减形式方法不同，我们的模型明确包含了对网络服务需求的关键特征：异构消费者的钟形分布和存在网络效应。我们对欧洲国家的经验分析表明，尽管对宽带服务的需求表现出强大的网络效应，但它们还不足以“强”到这些市场中的关键数量。此外，系统的平衡动力学表明，即使最初以很高的价格引入了该技术，但供应商基础设施投资的扩大在头几年迅速降低了平衡价格。这种降价加上强大的网络效应，刺激了订阅基础的扩展，直到分销高峰时的消费者进入市场。服务价格大约需要8年的时间才能达到稳定状态，订阅价格需要15年左右的时间。比较静态分析表明，稳态均衡分配与人口密度，平台间集中度和非捆绑局部环路份额成正比，而均衡价格与这些因素成反比。其他供求因素（即平台内集中度，收入和教育程度）对稳态平衡的影响最小。

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