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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Economics >Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations
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Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

机译：旅游经济增长是否随时间变化？十大旅游胜地的自举式滚动窗口因果关系分析

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This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the United States of America, over the period 1990-2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policymakers.
机译：本文探讨了中国，法国，德国，意大利，墨西哥，俄罗斯联邦，西班牙，土耳其，英国和美国等世界十大旅游目的地的旅游业发展与经济增长之间的时空因果关系。美国在1990年至2015年期间的收入。为此，使用了基于改进的Granger因果关系检验的自举滚动窗口Granger因果关系方法。还采用了一种新的旅游活动指数，该指数通过主成分分析结合了常用的旅游指标。自举滚动窗口因果关系测试的结果表明，旅游业与经济增长之间的因果关系会随着时间的推移以及国家和地区的大小和方向发生很大变化。结果表明，在2008年全球金融危机之后，因果关系对大多数国家而言更为明显。此外，德国，法国和中国显然是因果关系最弱的国家，而英国，意大利墨西哥成为因果关系最强的国家。这些结果对政策制定者具有特别重要的意义。

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