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Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China

机译：政府干预住房市场的影响：中国住房限购政策的证据

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摘要

In 2010, a housing purchase restriction policy was announced by China's central government and implemented gradually by several prefecture governments. In this article, we empirically investigate this policy's effect on the housing market. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we show that the housing purchase restriction policy reduces housing prices and transaction amounts but does not influence the housing investment or construction markets. Moreover, upstream industry suffers more than downstream industry. The results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Heterogeneity exists across cities. We find that first- and second-tier cities as well as highly urbanized cities experience great declines in housing prices after the policy's implementation, especially cites that had high housing prices in 2010 and cities with high real estate investment as a proportion of fixed asset investment. However, the housing policy is less effective in curbing speculative demand.
机译：2010年，中国中央政府宣布了住房购买限制政策，并逐步被几个州政府实施。在本文中，我们以实证研究此政策对房地产市场的影响。使用差异差框架，我们表明住房购买限制政策降低了住房价格和交易量，但不影响住房投资或建筑市场。而且，上游产业比下游产业遭受的影响更大。结果对于一系列的健壮性检查是健壮的。城市之间存在异质性。我们发现，该政策实施后，一线和二线城市以及高度城市化的城市房价出现了大幅下跌，尤其是在2010年房价高企以及房地产投资占固定资产投资比例高的城市。但是，住房政策在抑制投机需求方面效果不佳。

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