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A new approach to measure tactical voting: evidence from the British elections

机译：一种衡量战术投票的新方法：英国大选的证据

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摘要

Although tactical voting attracts a great deal of attention, it is very hard to measure as it requires knowledge of both individuals' voting choices as well as their unobserved preferences. In this article, we present a simple empirical strategy to nonparametrically identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results. This approach allows us to study the magnitude and direction of strategic voting as well as to verify which information voters and parties take into account to determine marginal constituencies. We show that tactical voting played a significant role in the 2010 election, mainly for Liberal-Democratic voters supporting Labour. Moreover, our results suggest that voters seem to form their expectations based on a national swing in vote shares rather than newspaper guides published in the main media outlets or previous election outcomes. We also present some evidence that suggests that campaign spending is not driving tactical voting.
机译：尽管战术投票吸引了大量关注，但很难衡量，因为它需要了解个人的投票选择以及他们未观察到的偏好。在本文中，我们提出了一种简单的经验策略，可以直接从投票结果中非参数地确定战术投票模式。这种方法使我们能够研究战略投票的规模和方向，并验证选民和政党在确定边缘选区时会考虑哪些信息。我们表明，战术投票在2010年大选中发挥了重要作用，主要是针对支持工党的自由民主党选民。此外，我们的结果表明，选民似乎是根据全国投票比例的波动而不是主要媒体上发布的报纸指南或先前的选举结果来形成期望的。我们还提供了一些证据，表明竞选支出并未推动战术投票。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Economics》 |2015年第36期|3839-3858|共20页
  • 作者

    Muller Daniel; Page Lionel;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Mannheim, Dept Econ, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany|Univ Mannheim, SFB 884, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany;

    Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Finance, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    tactical voting; British elections; expectations;

    机译：战术投票;英国选举;期望;

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