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Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?

机译：利率差能否稳定欧元区？

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摘要

Since the onset of the financial crisis significant interest rate spreads have arisen between euro area countries, both for public and private debt. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular, we focus on reducing the imbalances that arose between the core and peripheral members of the euro area in the first decade of its existence. The idea is that stable positive spreads in peripheral countries could have decreased domestic demand, preventing the boom-bust cycles that plagued these economies. They could also prevent such developments in the future. We construct a panel model for euro area countries and estimate the relationship between real interest rates and the current account balance. Next, we use the estimated parameters to perform simulations. We find that spreads on real interest rates of 0.6-5.5 percentage points would have been necessary to stabilize external positions of the four peripheral euro area member countries.
机译：自金融危机爆发以来，欧元区国家之间就公共债务和私人债务都出现了重大的利差。我们检查这些利差是否可以朝着使欧元区更稳定的目标努力。特别是，我们着重于减少在欧元区存在的最初十年中核心和外围成员国之间出现的失衡。这个想法是，外围国家的稳定的正价差可能会减少国内需求，从而避免困扰这些经济体的繁荣-萧条周期。它们也可能在将来阻止这种发展。我们为欧元区国家构建了面板模型，并估算了实际利率与经常账户余额之间的关系。接下来，我们使用估计的参数执行模拟。我们发现，为稳定四个周边欧元区成员国的外部头寸，实际利率差应为0.6-5.5个百分点。

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