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How widespread are nonlinear crowding out effects? The response of private transfers to income in four developing countries

机译：非线性挤出效应有多广泛？四个发展中国家私人转移对收入的反应

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摘要

This article investigates the relationship between household income and private transfers received in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, there is less likelihood of expansions in public social security crowding out private transfers. Most literature finds that private transfers are unresponsive, but this may be because responses have been obscured by the methods that ignore nonlinearities. Threshold regression techniques find such nonlinearity in the Philippines and scope for serious crowding out, with 30-80% of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households (Cox et al., 2004). To see if these nonlinear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countries - China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam. The results reported in this article suggest that nonlinear crowding out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and -0.08.
机译：本文调查了发展中国家的家庭收入与私人转移之间的关系。如果私人转移对家庭收入没有反应，那么扩大公共社会保障的可能性就将私人转移排挤出去。大多数文献发现私人转移没有响应性，但这可能是因为忽略非线性的方法使响应被模糊了。门槛回归技术在菲律宾发现了这种非线性，并且存在严重的挤出效应，有30-80％的私人转移可能转移给低收入家庭（Cox等，2004）。为了查看这些非线性效应是否更广泛地发生，使用半参数和阈值回归方法对四个发展中国家（中国，印度尼西亚，巴布亚新几内亚和越南）的私人转移进行建模。本文报道的结果表明，非线性挤出效应不是这些国家转移行为的重要特征。在各种假设下的转移导数仅在0到-0.08之间。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Economics》 |2011年第27期|p.4053-4068|共16页
  • 作者

    John Gibson; Susan Olivia; Scott Rozelle;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand;

    Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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