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Bounded cumulative prospect theory: some implications for gambling outcomes

机译:有界累积前景理论:对赌博结果的一些启示

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摘要

Standard parametric specifications of Cumulative Prospect theory (CPT) can explain why agents bet on longshots at actuarially unfair odds. However, the standard specification of CPT cannot explain why people might bet on more favoured outcomes, where by construction the greatest volume of money is bet. This article outlines a parametric specification than can consistently explain gambling over all outcomes. In particular we assume that the value function is bounded from above and below and that the degree of loss aversion experienced by the agent is smaller for small-stake gambles (as a proportion of wealth) than usually assumed in CPT. There are a number of new implications of this specification. Boundedness of the value function in CPT implies that the indifference curve between expected-return and win-probability for a given stake will typically exhibit both an asymptote (implying rejection of an infinite gain bet) and a minimum, as the shape of the value function dominates the probability weighting function. Also the high probability section of the indifference curve will exhibit a maximum.
机译:累积预期理论(CPT)的标准参数规范可以解释为什么代理商在精算上以不公平的赔率投注远景。但是,CPT的标准规范无法解释为什么人们会押在更受青睐的结果上,因为在这种情况下,最多的钱是赌注。本文概述了一个参数规范,可以始终解释所有结果的赌博。特别是,我们假设价值函数从上到下受限制,并且对于小额赌注(占财富的一部分),代理商所遭受的损失厌恶程度要比CPT中通常假定的要小。该规范有许多新的含义。 CPT中价值函数的有界性意味着,对于给定的赌注,预期收益与获胜概率之间的无差异曲线通常会同时表现出渐近线(这意味着拒绝无限增益下注)和最小值,这是价值函数的形状主导了概率加权函数。无差异曲线的高概率部分也将显示出最大值。

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