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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Economics >The Markowitz model of utility supplemented with a small degree of probability distortion as an explanation of outcomes of Allais experiments over large and small payoffs and gambling on unlikely outcomes
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The Markowitz model of utility supplemented with a small degree of probability distortion as an explanation of outcomes of Allais experiments over large and small payoffs and gambling on unlikely outcomes

机译：实用性的Markowitz模型补充了较小程度的概率失真，以解释Allais关于大笔和小笔收益以及对不太可能的结果进行赌博的实验结果

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摘要

We show that in principal only a small degree of probability distortion is necessary for agents to exhibit the Allais paradox. We also show that the choices observed in the Allais experiments employing small real payoffs cannot be explained by Cumulative Prospect Theory without the assumption of low degrees of probability distortion that rule out gambling at unfair odds on all but the most extreme longshots in CPT. Given these points we show that the Markowitz model of utility supplemented by a small degree of probability distortion can explain the majority choices involved Allais experiments and other experiments as well as gambling at actuarially unfair odds.
机译：我们证明，原则上，代理要表现出Allais悖论只需要很小程度的概率失真。我们还表明，如果不假设概率失真程度低（排除了CPT中最极端的远景除外），所有可能性均不合理，则不能通过累积预期理论来解释在使用较小实际收益的Allais实验中观察到的选择。考虑到这些要点，我们表明，Markowitz效用模型辅以较小程度的概率失真，可以解释涉及Allais实验和其他实验以及精算不公平赔率赌博的多数选择。

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