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Measuring displacement effects across gaming products: a study of Australian gambling markets

机译：衡量游戏产品之间的位移效应：对澳大利亚赌博市场的研究

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This article seeks to establish the extent of displacement effects across gaming products. This is a particularly difficult question to address with precision. To date, many studies have looked at policy changes such as the introduction of a new product into the market to assess the severity of displacement effects. However, simple before and after comparisons are invalid. One needs to know what the appropriate counterfactual would have been in the absence of the policy change - which by its very nature is unobservable. The alternative is to look at identical populations exposed to different regimes. Australia represents such a natural experiment. In Australia, Betting and Gaming legislation is determined at the state level, giving rise to some interesting differentials across states within a single country. This article estimates a state level (fixed effects) panel data model, exploiting the intra-state differences in the portfolio of gaming products available, to estimate the extent of displacement effects across the gaming sector. The results are particularly relevant to the current UK policy debate, which is focused on the potential impact on the existing market following a forthcoming, radical deregulation of the industry (with further liberalization proposed).
机译：本文旨在确定游戏产品之间的位移影响程度。这是一个很难精确解决的问题。迄今为止，许多研究都在研究政策变化，例如将新产品引入市场以评估流离失所影响的严重性。但是，简单的前后比较是无效的。人们需要知道在没有政策变化的情况下适当的反事实-从本质上来说这是不可观察的。另一种选择是看暴露于不同制度的相同人群。澳大利亚代表了这样一个自然的实验。在澳大利亚，博彩和博彩立法是在州一级制定的，因此在一个国家内各州之间存在一些有趣的差异。本文通过利用可用游戏产品组合中的州内差异来估计状态级别（固定效应）面板数据模型，以估计整个游戏部门的位移效应的程度。该结果与当前的英国政策辩论特别相关，该辩论集中在该行业即将进行的彻底放宽管制（建议进一步开放）之后对现有市场的潜在影响。

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