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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Energy >Effects of population, urbanization, household size, and income on electric appliance adoption in the Chinese residential sector towards 2050
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Effects of population, urbanization, household size, and income on electric appliance adoption in the Chinese residential sector towards 2050

机译：到2050年人口，城市化，家庭规模和收入对中国住宅领域电器普及的影响

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摘要

We present an analytical framework to project adoption of household electric appliances under a number of scenarios with different levels of population, urbanization, household size, and per-capita income. This framework enables us to estimate the saturation (i.e., number of a particular electric appliance per household) and the extent of adoption (total number of a particular electric appliance owned in each province), and to assess the impact of each driver. We focus on six types of appliances: personal computer, air conditioner, microwave oven, refrigerator, washing machine and television, and project their adoption during the 2015-2050 period. The projections are conducted for forty-five scenarios that combine five levels of population growth, three levels of per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) and income growth, and three levels of change in household size. We find that, among the six appliances investigated, ownership of personal computers and air conditioning equipment will grow the most, and that the current differences in appliance saturation among provinces and between urban and rural regions will almost disappear by 2050. However, most of the appliances will be owned in urban centers in Eastern China, where the majority of the population will be concentrated. Income growth, combined with urbanization and a reduction in household sizes, increases the total number of appliances, while a reduction in population decreases the total number of appliances. The results can be used as key inputs for long-term electricity system planning and to explore the potential effects of policies to support End-Use Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Response.
机译：我们提供了一个分析框架，用于在人口，城市化程度，家庭规模和人均收入不同的许多情况下，预测家用电器的采用情况。该框架使我们能够估计饱和度（即每个家庭中特定电器的数量）和采用程度（每个省拥有的特定电器的总数），并评估每个驾驶员的影响。我们专注于六类电器：个人计算机，空调，微波炉，冰箱，洗衣机和电视，并计划在2015-2050年期间采用它们。这些预测是针对四十五种情况进行的，这些情况结合了五个水平的人口增长，三个水平的人均国内生产总值和收入增长以及三个水平的家庭规模变化。我们发现，在所调查的六种家用电器中，个人计算机和空调设备的拥有量将增长最多，到2050年，当前各省之间以及城乡之间的家用电器饱和度差异将几乎消失。家电将归华东地区的城市中心所有，而华东地区的人口将集中在这里。收入的增长，再加上城市化和家庭人数的减少，增加了家用电器的总数，而人口减少则减少了家用电器的总数。结果可以用作长期电力系统规划的关键输入，并可以探索支持最终用途能源效率和需求侧响应的政策的潜在影响。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Energy》 |2019年第15期|293-306|共14页
  • 作者

    Li Mingquan; Shan Rui; Hernandez Mauricio; Mallampalli Varun; Patino-Echeverri Dalia;

  • 作者单位

    Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, 9 Circuit Dr,Environm Hall 3120, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

    Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, 9 Circuit Dr,Environm Hall 3118, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

    Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, 9 Circuit Dr,Environm Hall 3118, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

    Duke Univ, Pratt Sch Engn, 167 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

    Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, 9 Circuit Dr,Environm Hall 3118, Durham, NC 27708 USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Appliance adoption; Residential sector; Long-term projection; Uncertainty; China;

    机译：家电采用;住宅部门;长期预测;不确定性;中国;

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