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首页> 外文期刊>Applied Energy >Scenario-based comparative assessment of potential future electricity systems - A new methodological approach using Germany in 2050 as an example
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Scenario-based comparative assessment of potential future electricity systems - A new methodological approach using Germany in 2050 as an example

机译：基于场景的未来潜在电力系统比较评估-以2050年德国为例的新方法论方法

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摘要

In this paper a new method for the evaluation and comparison of potential future electricity systems is presented. The German electricity system in the year 2050 is used as an example. Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis defining a corridor for possible shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources (FRES) residual loads are calculated in a unified manner. The share of electricity from PV and wind power plants in Germany in the year 2050 is in a range of 42-122% and the load demand has a bandwidth of around 460-750 TWh. The residual loads are input for an algorithm that defines a supplementary mix of technologies providing flexibility to the system. The overall system layout guarantees the balance of generation and demand at all times. Due to the fact that the same method for residual load calculation and mixture of technologies is applied for all scenarios, a good comparability is guaranteed and we are able to identify key characteristics for future developments. The unique feature of the new algorithms presented here is the very fast calculation for a year-long simulation with hourly or shorter time steps taking into account the state of charge or availability of all storage and flexibility technologies. This allows an analysis of many different scenarios on a macro-economic level, variation of input parameters can easily be done, and extensive sensitivity analysis is possible. Furthermore different shares of FRES, CO2-emission targets, interest rates or social acceptance of certain technologies can be included. The capabilities of the method are demonstrated by an analysis of potential German power system layouts with a base scenario of 90% CO2-reduction target compared to 1990 and by the identification of different options for a power sector with a high degree of decarbonisation. The approach also aims at a very high level of transparency both regarding the algorithms and regarding the input parameters of the different technologies taken into account. Therefore this paper also gives a comprehensive and complete overview on the technology parameters used. The forecast on all technologies for the year 2050 regarding technical and economic parameters was made in a comprehensive consultation process with more than 100 experts representing academia and industry working on all different technologies. An extensive analysis of options for the design of potential German energy supply systems in 2050 based on the presented methodology will be published in a follow-up paper. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：本文提出了一种评估和比较未来潜在电力系统的新方法。以2050年的德国电力系统为例。根据全面的情景分析，为可再生能源波动（FRES）的可能份额定义走廊，以统一的方式计算剩余负荷。到2050年，德国光伏和风力发电厂的电力份额在42-122％的范围内，负载需求的带宽约为460-750 TWh。残余负载输入一个算法，该算法定义了为系统提供灵活性的技术补充组合。整个系统布局可确保始终保持发电量与需求之间的平衡。由于所有情况均采用相同的剩余负荷计算方法和技术混合方法，因此可以保证良好的可比性，并且我们能够确定未来发展的关键特征。此处介绍的新算法的独特功能是非常快的计算，可以进行长达一年的仿真，并按小时或更短的时间步长进行计算，并考虑到所有存储和灵活性技术的收费状态或可用性。这样可以在宏观经济水平上分析许多不同的情况，可以轻松完成输入参数的变化，并且可以进行广泛的灵敏度分析。此外，可以包括FRES的不同份额，CO2排放目标，利率或某些技术的社会接受度。该方法的功能通过对潜在的德国电力系统布局进行分析（与1990年相比实现90％的二氧化碳减排目标），并通过为高度脱碳的电力部门确定不同的选择来证明。该方法还旨在在算法和所考虑的不同技术的输入参数方面都具有很高的透明度。因此，本文还对所使用的技术参数进行了全面而完整的概述。在全面的协商过程中对2050年有关技术和经济参数的所有技术进行了预测，有来自学术界和工业界的100多名专家致力于所有不同的技术。根据提出的方法，将对2050年德国潜在能源供应系统的设计方案进行广泛分析，并将发表在后续文件中。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Energy》 |2016年第1期|555-580|共26页
  • 作者

    Lunz Benedikt; Stoecker Philipp; Eckstein Sascha; Nebel Arjuna; Samadi Sascha; Erlach Berit; Fischedick Manfred; Elsner Peter; Sauer Dirk Uwe;

  • 作者单位

    Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, Inst Power Elect & Elect Drives ISEA, Chair Electrochem Energy Convers & Storage Syst, Jagerstr 17-19, D-52066 Aachen, Germany|JARA Energy, Juelich Aachen Res Alliance, Aachen, Germany|Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, EON Energy Res Ctr, Inst Power Generat & Storage Syst PGS, Aachen, Germany;

    Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, Inst Power Elect & Elect Drives ISEA, Chair Electrochem Energy Convers & Storage Syst, Jagerstr 17-19, D-52066 Aachen, Germany|JARA Energy, Juelich Aachen Res Alliance, Aachen, Germany|Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, EON Energy Res Ctr, Inst Power Generat & Storage Syst PGS, Aachen, Germany;

    Wuppertal Inst Climate Environm & Energy, Wuppertal, Germany;

    Wuppertal Inst Climate Environm & Energy, Wuppertal, Germany;

    Wuppertal Inst Climate Environm & Energy, Wuppertal, Germany;

    Acatech Natl Acad Sci & Engn, Munich, Germany;

    Wuppertal Inst Climate Environm & Energy, Wuppertal, Germany;

    Fraunhofer Inst Chem Technol, Pfinztal, Germany;

    Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, Inst Power Elect & Elect Drives ISEA, Chair Electrochem Energy Convers & Storage Syst, Jagerstr 17-19, D-52066 Aachen, Germany|JARA Energy, Juelich Aachen Res Alliance, Aachen, Germany|Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, EON Energy Res Ctr, Inst Power Generat & Storage Syst PGS, Aachen, Germany;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy scenario; Scenario analysis; Residual load calculation; German electricity system;

    机译：能源情景;情景分析;剩余负荷计算;德国电力系统;

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