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Modelling and analysis of oil import tariff and stockpile policies for coping with supply disruptions

机译：石油进口关税和库存政策的建模和分析，以应对供应中断

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摘要

The potential economic damages from oil supply disruptions could be suppressed by emergency preparedness and response measures. As two of the most feasible response measures, oil import tariff and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) could alleviate short-run oil supply and demand imbalance situations. This study develops a two period model to explore China's optimal tariff rate and stockpiling size. Our objective is to minimize potential social welfare loss and macroeconomic loss associated with supply disruptions, as well as the policy cost. In a representative numerical case, we find China's optimal tariff rate is $3.8/bbl and stockpiling size is 219.4 million barrels. Higher tariff rate and lower stockpiling size are recommended contrast with current tariff and stockpiling policy. Additionally, by examining the net benefit of policy during a disruption, our result shows that the optimal implementation of tariff-stockpiling policy benefits most rather than single tariff or stockpiling policy does.
机译：应急准备和响应措施可以抑制石油供应中断带来的潜在经济损失。作为最可行的两项应对措施，石油进口关税和战略石油储备（SPR）可以缓解短期石油供需不平衡的情况。这项研究建立了一个两阶段模型来探索中国的最优关税率和库存规模。我们的目标是将与供应中断相关的潜在社会福利损失和宏观经济损失以及政策成本降至最低。在一个有代表性的数字案例中，我们发现中国的最佳关税税​​率为3.8美元/桶，库存量为2.194亿桶。与目前的关税和库存政策相比，建议提高关税率和降低库存量。此外，通过检查中断过程中政策的净收益，我们的结果表明，最优实施关税库存政策的收益最大，而不是单一关税或库存政策的收益。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Energy》 |2012年第2012期|p.84-90|共7页
  • 作者

    Y. Bai; D.Q. Zhou; P. Zhou;

  • 作者单位

    College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China Research Centre for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China;

    College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China Research Centre for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China;

    College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China Research Centre for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, People's Republic of China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    import tariff policy; emergency storage; supply risks; policy performance;

    机译：进口关税政策;应急仓库;供应风险;政策执行;

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