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On the predictability of daytime and night-time yen/dollar exchange rates

机译:关于日夜日元/美元汇率的可预测性

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This article first shows that the yen/dollar rate tended to appreciate in Japan daytime but to depreciate in Japan night-time in the 2000s. The result is very paradoxical because the asymmetry implies that the intra-daily yen/dollar rate had predictable stochastic trends in the 2000s. The article then investigates whether lagged dependent variables and various external shocks were responsible to the asymmetric feature. We find that once we control the effects of lagged dependent variables and external shocks, the daytime yen/dollar rate tended to appreciate when it had appreciated on the day before, while the night-time yen/dollar rate tended to depreciate when it had depreciated on the day before.
机译:本文首先显示日元/美元汇率在日本白天趋于升值,但在2000年代日本夜间趋于贬值。结果非常自相矛盾,因为不对称性意味着日内日元/美元汇率在2000年代具有可预测的随机趋势。然后,本文研究了滞后因变量和各种外部冲击是否对不对称特征负责。我们发现,一旦控制了滞后因变量和外部冲击的影响,当日日元/美元汇率在前一天升值时便趋于升值,而当日日元/美元汇率贬值时便趋于贬值。在前一天。

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