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Work safety evaluation in Mainland China using grey theory

机译：基于灰色理论的中国大陆安全生产评价

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摘要

With rapid socio-economic development in Mainland China, work safety remains a serious and continuous concern for the country. To better understand work-related accidents, we propose to analyze the dynamic situation and future trends of work safety in Mainland China using grey theory. The forecasting models, i.e., GM (1,1) models are constructed by use of annual data sets of work-related deaths from five branches: mining and commercial casualties, highway traffic accidents, railway traffic accidents, fire disasters, and all fatal casualties. The effectiveness of these proposed models is demonstrated through accuracy test. The predicted results show that the death counts, not only in the four sub-sections but also overall, will decline continuously, suggesting that the work safety situation will improve.
机译：随着中国大陆社会经济的飞速发展，工作安全仍然是中国持续不断的关切问题。为了更好地了解与工作有关的事故，我们建议使用灰色理论分析中国大陆安全生产的动态情况和未来趋势。预测模型，即GM（1,1）模型是通过使用五个部门的与工作相关的年度死亡数据集而构建的：采矿和商业伤亡，公路交通事故，铁路交通事故，火灾和所有致命伤亡。通过精度测试证明了这些建议模型的有效性。预测结果表明，死亡人数不仅在四个小节中，而且在整个死亡人数中都将持续下降，这表明工作安全状况将得到改善。

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  • 来源
    《Applied Mathematical Modelling》 |2015年第2期|924-933|共10页
  • 作者

    Jiuchang Wei; Lei Zhou; Fei Wang; Desheng Wu;

  • 作者单位

    School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, Anhui Province 230026, PR China;

    School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, Anhui Province 230026, PR China;

    School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei, Anhui Province 230026, PR China;

    University of Toronto, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Work safety situation; Work-related accident; Grey theory; Forecasting model;

    机译：工作安全状况;与工作有关的事故;灰色理论;预测模型;

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