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On the principle of maximum entropy and the risk analysis of disaster loss

机译:最大熵原理与灾害损失风险分析

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摘要

Disasters that occur everywhere in the most disordered way indicate that disaster entropy has reached the maximum value. Under given constraint conditions, when disaster entropy is the maximum value, the disaster loss series should follow P-III distribution. The occurrence interval of disaster loss refers to the average time interval that disaster Ioss of certain degree happens in the future. We could, according to the field disaster data and using P-III distribution function, calculate the value of future disaster loss with certain recurrence interval. Explicit in concept and easy to use, such a method has significant meaning in practice.
机译:以最混乱的方式到处发生的灾难表明灾难熵已经达到最大值。在给定的约束条件下,当灾难熵为最大值时,灾难损失序列应遵循P-III分布。灾难损失的发生间隔是指将来一定程度的灾难发生的平均时间间隔。我们可以根据现场灾害数据并使用P-III分布函数,以一定的重复间隔来计算未来灾害损失的价值。这种方法概念明确且易于使用,在实践中具有重要意义。

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