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Phosphorus loading, transport and concentrations in a lake chain: a probabilistic model to compare management options

机译：湖泊链中磷的负载，迁移和富集：比较管理方案的概率模型

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摘要

Phosphorus (P) loading, exports and concentrations of the four lakes of the Yahara chain (Wisconsin, USA) were compared under four load-reduction plans using a model calibrated with 29-33 years of annual data. P mitigation goals must balance reductions in P concentrations in the four lakes and the export from the lake chain to downstream waters. Lake Mendota, the uppermost lake, is most responsive to P load reductions, and benefits diminish downstream. Nonetheless, the greatest reductions in export from the lake chain to downstream waters derive from P load reductions to lakes lower in the chain. The effective grazer Daphnia pulicaria causes large improvements in water quality. Management to maintain populations of D. pulicaria has substantial benefits that augment those from reductions in P loading. Model projections show high variability in water quality and exports under all load-reduction plans. This variability is driven by inter-annual variation in runoff. Thus lake managers and the public should expect ongoing year-to-year variability in water quality, even though P load mitigation will improve water quality on average. Because of high variability from year to year, ongoing monitoring is essential to assess the effects of management of this chain of lakes.
机译：雅哈拉链（美国威斯康星州）的四个湖泊的磷（P）负荷，出口和浓度在四个减少负荷的计划下进行了比较，使用的模型使用29-33年的年度数据进行了校准。缓解磷的目标必须平衡四个湖泊中磷浓度的降低以及从湖泊链向下游水域的出口。门多塔湖是最上层的湖泊，对磷负荷的减少反应最灵敏，下游的收益也有所减少。尽管如此，从湖泊链向下游水域的最大出口减少是由于向湖泊链下游的湖泊的磷负荷减少。有效的放牧水蚤（Daphnia pulicaria）可以大大改善水质。维持to草种群的管理具有可从减少磷负荷中获得的益处而带来的实质性好处。模型预测表明，在所有减少负荷的计划下，水质和出口的波动性很大。这种可变性是由径流的年际变化驱动的。因此，即使减轻P负荷平均可以改善水质，湖泊管理者和公众也应该期待水质的逐年变化。由于每年之间的变化很大，因此进行持续的监测对于评估该湖链管理的影响至关重要。

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