Bid to Lift Stock Market May Only Stunt Capital Growth

PETER WONACOTT

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Bid to Lift Stock Market May Only Stunt Capital Growth

机译：竞购提振股市可能只会阻碍资本增长

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Beijing―Not long ago, Chin's regulators fretted about the country's share prices spinning out of control. Now, there is a creeping sense of nostalgia for those days. At a little-noticed seminar in Beijing last month, market boosters emerged from an unlikely corner of China's financial industry: current and former chiefs of the securities watchdog worried publicly about the effects of stringent policing on a market that lost about one-fourth of its value last year and has languished so far in 2002. Less than two weeks later, China's Central Bank Gov. Dai Xianglong said the government needed to find ways to funnel more of the nation's $1 trillion in individual savings into the stock markets. The remarks signaled a surprising change of course for regulators who a year ago promised to stamp out speculative excesses, come what may. But while the apparent softening could breathe some life into the markets ahead of a transition of top leaders this year, some fear it may be at the expense of fundamental reforms.

机译：北京-不久前，中国的监管机构担心该国股价失控。现在，那些日子里逐渐有了怀旧的感觉。在上个月在北京一个鲜为人知的研讨会上，市场推动者从中国金融业一个不太可能的角落出现：证券监管机构的现任和前任负责人公开担心严格的监管对市场的影响，该市场损失了约四分之一的市场。去年的外汇储备价值，到2002年迄今一直低迷。不到两周后，中国中央银行行长戴相龙表示，政府需要找到办法，将全国1万亿美元的个人储蓄中的更多资金投入股市。这些言论表明，对于一年前承诺要消除投机性过度行为的监管机构，情况可能会发生令人惊讶的变化。但是，尽管明显的疲软可能会在今年高层领导人过渡之前为市场注入一些活力，但有些人担心这可能会以根本性的改革为代价。

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《The Asian Wall Street Journal》 |2002年第16期|p.5|共1页
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PETER WONACOTT;
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机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

Bid to Lift Stock Market May Only Stunt Capital Growth

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