...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Acta astronautica >Impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for asteroid 2015 PDC
【24h】

Impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for asteroid 2015 PDC

机译：小行星2015 PDC的撞击风险评估和行星防御任务计划

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In this paper, an integrated utilization of analytic keyhole theory, B-plane mapping, and planetary encounter geometry, augmented by direct numerical simulation, is shown to be useful in determining the impact risk of an asteroid with the Earth on a given encounter, as well on potential future encounters via keyhole passages. The accurate estimation of the impact probability of hazardous asteroids is extremely important for planetary defense mission planning. Asteroids in Earth resonant orbits are particularly troublesome because of the continuous threat they pose in the future. Based on the trajectories of the asteroid and the Earth, feasible mission trajectories can be found to mitigate the impact threat of hazardous asteroids. In order to try to ensure mission success, trajectories are judged based on initial and final mission design parameters that would make the mission easier to complete. Given the potential of a short-warning time scenario, a disruption mission considered in this paper occurs approximately one year prior to the anticipated impact date. Expanding upon the established theory, a computational method is developed to estimate the impact probability of the hazardous asteroid, in order to assess the likelihood of an event, and then investigate the fragmentation of the asteroid due to a disruption mission and analyze its effects on the current and future encounters of the fragments with Earth. A fictional asteroid, designated as 2015 PDC - created as an example asteroid risk exercise for the 2015 Planetary Defence Conference, is used as a reference target asteroid to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of computational tools being developed for impact risk assessment and planetary defense mission planning for a hazardous asteroid or comet. (C) 2016 IAA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：在本文中，通过直接数值模拟的增强，分析匙孔理论，B平面映射和行星相遇几何的综合利用被证明对于确定小行星与地球在给定相遇中的撞击风险非常有用，例如通过钥匙孔通道很好地解决了未来可能遇到的问题。准确估算危险小行星的撞击概率对于行星防御任务规划极为重要。地球共振轨道上的小行星特别麻烦，因为它们将来会继续构成威胁。根据小行星和地球的轨迹，可以找到可行的飞行轨迹来减轻危险小行星的撞击威胁。为了确保任务成功，将根据初始和最终任务设计参数来判断轨迹，这将使任务更易于完成。考虑到预警时间短的可能性，本文中考虑的破坏任务大约在预期影响日期之前一年进行。在既定理论的基础上，发展了一种计算方法来估算危险小行星的撞击概率，以便评估事件的可能性，然后研究由于破坏任务而造成的小行星碎片并分析其对小行星撞击的影响。地球碎片的当前和未来遭遇。一个虚构的小行星，指定为2015 PDC-作为2015年行星防御大会的小行星风险演习示例而创建，被用作参考目标小行星，以证明正在开发的用于影响风险评估和行星防御任务计划的计算工具的有效性和适用性用于危险的小行星或彗星。 （C）2016 IAA。由Elsevier Ltd.出版。保留所有权利。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号