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Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978-2014

机译：1978-2014年中国实际GDP的决定因素

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摘要

In 2014, the IMF reported that China became the largest economy in the world according to Purchasing Power Parity rates. This study aims to explain the Chinese economic miracle. It focuses on frequently suggested factors influencing China’s real gross domestic product (GDP), such as export promotion, exchange rate policy, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper employs the Bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test for cointegration. Once cointegration is established, Granger Causality is investigated using the vector autoregressive model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method. Two different combinations of the real macroeconomic variables exports, exchange rate, imports, and FDI were employed to examine Granger causal relationships. All explanatory variables, except for the exchange rate, were found to have plausible relationships with GDP. The exchange rate and GDP relationship was unexpected; a Renminbi appreciation was associated with an increase in GDP. To investigate this paradox, a third ARDL model was estimated with exports as the dependent variable and the exchange rate, world GDP, and FDI as the independent variables. In this model, we found evidence of cointegration and a plausible relationship between real exports and the real exchange rate. Exchange rate devaluation increased exports and thus indirectly increased GDP. Such findings help to resolve the unexpected results. Nonetheless, according to the Granger causality tests the established statistical evidence is rather weak. We found that both the exchange rate and FDI are no longer strong drivers of economic growth in China.
机译：根据购买力平价汇率，国际货币基金组织在2014年报告中国已成为世界上最大的经济体。这项研究旨在解释中国的经济奇迹。它重点关注影响中国实际国内生产总值（GDP）的常见建议因素，例如出口促进，汇率政策和外国直接投资（FDI）。本文采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型的Bounds检验进行协整检验。一旦建立了协整关系，就可以使用矢量自回归模型以及Toda和Yamamoto（1995）方法研究Granger因果关系。实际宏观经济变量出口，汇率，进口和外国直接投资的两种不同组合被用来检验格兰杰因果关系。除汇率外，所有解释性变量均与GDP似乎存在合理关系。汇率与GDP的关系出乎意料；人民币升值与GDP增长有关。为了研究这一悖论，估计了第三种ARDL模型，其中出口为因变量，汇率，世界GDP和FDI为自变量。在此模型中，我们发现了协整关系的证据以及实际出口与实际汇率之间的合理联系。汇率贬值增加了出口，因此间接增加了GDP。这些发现有助于解决意外的结果。但是，根据格兰杰因果关系检验，已建立的统计证据相当薄弱。我们发现汇率和外国直接投资已不再是中国经济增长的强大驱动力。

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